A few weeks ago, some Asian countries took a significant decision: they will no longer export some raw materials outside their borders, locking themselves in a kind of archaic autarky.

This is how the supply crisis resulting from the Ukrainian conflict has brought Maslow’s pyramid back. Each state, overriding the treaties it has signed up to, is implementing the best expedients to meet the deepest needs of its citizens, like hunger.

Malaysia has decided to stop exporting wheat to Singapore because it has a shortage of feed for its poultry industry. This despite the fact that it only joined the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) in January, which is supposed to facilitate trade between Asian countries. As a result, in Singapore – whose prices are already very high- the price of wheat sharply increased, and they have been looking for other exporters, such as Brazil and the United States.

Indonesia, another signatory of the RCEP, has also decided to stop from May until November exports of the controversial but essential palm oil, of which it is the world’s largest producer.

Even the extended India, which has not signed the RCEP and is the world’s second largest wheat producer after Ukraine, has stopped exporting its wheat and sugar since May, due to some abnormal heat waves that have rotted much of its crops.

The only country that seems to be on the flip side is China, which can count on its own large wheat production, favoured by the extension of its territory. Undoubtedly, the fact that during recent months these countries have been focused on mass production of the missing semiconductor components has put their food issue in the background. Moreover, as with all food commodities, cereals cannot be forever stored: if they are not delivered in time, they will inevitably rot and we will have to wait for the next harvest. The scenario of a possible famine is becoming more and more pressing.

Seeking other exporters is not easy: a temporary solution could be the aforementioned Latin America, which is, however, increasingly at the mercy of violent weather phenomena due to the climate change and which are leaving little room for possible exports of surpluses.

In this Orwellian scenario of blurred borders and constant wars, the production and export of an essential commodity like wheat is uncertain in the near future.

This politics has been incapable of foreseeing an announced conflict like the Ukrainian one. Let us hope for better future developments that can provide stability and peace for the populations.

By the London headquarters of Pangea Studio Associato Cristina
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